Photo : Finnish Government
14 May 2022, Saturday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #201
Finland and Sweden: Implications of becoming NATO members
By Padmashree Anandhan
What happened?
On 12 May, a joint statement was released by Finland’s president Sauli Niinistö and prime minister Sanna Marin on the application for NATO membership. It read: “NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security. As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance. Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay.” Sweden is expected to announce the same on 15 May.
According to Finland’s former prime minister, Alexander Stubb the proportion of the Finns who were against Finland joining NATO had revered from 50:20 to 20:50, favoring the decision. He also expects the support per cent to go up to 80 post Finland's announcement to join NATO.
What does membership mean?
First, regional defence and people’s safety. The neighbouring Nordic and Baltic states which previously feared the threat of Russia over Finland and Sweden gaining membership from NATO will support the decision due to war. Finland and Sweden joining NATO not only means a defence posture against Russia but the strengthening of security for Northern Europe and a confidence boost for the Baltic states. Apart from this, in the Nordic states which are top in the world happiness index, ensuring their people feel safe against Russia is a key goal. Therefore, to thwart the Russian threat and to meet people’s satisfaction, Finland and Sweden will have to differ from their neutrality principle and increase their defence expenditure.
Second, security guarantees from nuclear states. Finland is part of all arms and nuclear weapons control agreements to support humanitarian goals, from the treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and the EU's Strategy against the proliferation of WMD. Until now there has been no security guarantee because of its neutrality principle in involving militarily. Through NATO membership, Finland and Sweden will gain the guarantee from the nuclear-capable states.
Third, geographical shift. St. Petersburg, Kola Peninsula, and Murmansk are considered the closest areas to Russia and Finland. The Kola Peninsula is the only place that holds Russian nuclear submarines and Murmansk is located less than 200 kilometres from Finland. If Finland opts for the Norwegian model to restrict the positioning of nuclear weapons or force in the foreign territory, it might lead to Russia improving its posture in northern Europe to defend the Murmansk region and its land communication with the remaining Russia. Such moves could lead to NATO installing its forces in northern Europe and thereby resulting in a direct clash with Russia.
References
“Joint statement by the President of the Republic and Prime Minister of Finland on Finland's NATO membership,” Finnish Government, 12 May 2022
“NATO: New challenges for the alliance as Finland and Sweden inch closer to membership?,” Deutsche Welle, 12 May 2022
“Finland Nato: Russia threatens to retaliate over membership move,” BBC, 12 May 2022
Charlie Duxbury, “Finnish leaders announce backing for NATO membership,” Politico, 12 May 2022
“The Effects Of Finland’s Possible NATO Membership,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Finland, April 2016
Turkey’s unhappiness over Finland and Sweden’s proposal to join NATO
By Ashwin Dhanabalan
Turkey’s discontentment with Finland and Sweden
On 13 May, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his unhappiness with the decision of Sweden and Finland proposing to join the NATO. Erdogan added: “We are following the developments with Finland and Sweden, but we don’t have favourable thoughts.” His remarks came as Finland announced that it aimed to join the alliance, while Sweden’s parliamentary security review mentioned that membership could deter the risk of conflict in northern Europe. Erdogan’s comments further highlighted his dismay as he mentioned how the Nordic countries were “home to many terrorist organisations”.
Turkey has always supported NATO’s expansion. However, it has reservations for Finland and Sweden due to historical and political reasons. Concerning Sweden, Erdogan repeatedly slammed its handling of Kurdish militant groups such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party(PKK) and Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Regarding Finland, Turkey is worried that it would have a spillover effect as Finland shares an 810-mile long border with Russia. On 12 May, Moscow warned of retaliation and a set of unspecified “military-technical” measures to Finland’s announcement of joining the NATO.
What lies ahead?
First, Erdogan’s power play. Erdogan is likely to use this opportunity to gain concessions from Sweden for hosting groups that are considered a terrorist movement by Ankara. Turkey is also scheduled to hold its presidential and parliamentary elections in June 2023, where Erdogan is likely to re-contest. Therefore his comments are seen as a way to gain support from his domestic audience.
Second, a roadblock to NATO membership. Apart from the long and complex membership process, Turkey’s stance would be another hurdle for Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. In addition, the procedure to join NATO includes a “five-step to accession process” that could take years for the two countries to complete.
Third, a potential retaliation by Russia. On 14 May, Putin with his security council discussed ways of reacting to Finland and Sweden joining NATO via a video link. This comes as Finland joining the alliance would increase Russia’s direct border with NATO by 810 miles. Russia has not clarified its retaliations but has mentioned that it could turn them from neutral to enemy countries overnight. Making them potential targets for Russia.
References
Michael Birnbaum, Victoria Bisset, Andrea Salcedo and John Hudson, “Turkey’s Erdogan voices skepticism on Sweden and Finland joining NATO,” The Washington Post, 13 May 2022
Jon Henley and Ruth Michaelson, “Erdoğan: Turkey ‘not positive’ about Sweden and Finland joining Nato,” The Guardian, 13 May 2022
Ice Toksabay and essay Lehto, “Erdogan says Turkey not supportive of Finland, Sweden joining NATO,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
"Russia fumes as Finland and Sweden push for NATO membership,” CBS NEWS, 13 May 2022
War in Ukraine: Day 79
By Rishma Banerjee
War On The Ground
On 13 May, in an interview, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he was ready to hold direct talks with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. However, he mentioned that Russia’s complete withdrawal from Russia would be the starting point for any discussion. The last face-to-face talks that Ukraine and Russia held were on 29 March. Zelenskyy said, “As president, I am ready to talk to Putin, but only to him. Without any of his intermediaries. And in the framework of dialogue, not ultimatums.”
On 13 May, Vadim Shysimarin, a 21-year-old Russian sergeant, accused of war crimes went on trial in Ukraine. He has been accused of murdering a 62-year-old civilian in the northeastern village of Chupakhivka, who was unarmed. This is a landmark moment as this is the first time that one of Russia’s soldiers is being tried for war crimes. If found guilty, Shysimarin faces life imprisonment.
Ukraine has requested the G7 member states to seize Russian assets and hand them over so that it can assist Ukraine in rebuilding the country after months of the war. Foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba said that they were talking about hundreds of billions of dollars, which Russia must pay for.
On 13 May, the First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotski spoke about how Ukraine was not being able to export more than 1.5 million tonnes of agricultural products a month because Russia blocking their major ports. Before the war, the country exported 5 million tonnes of agricultural crops per month and has now resorted to sending their products by rail.
Ukrainian human rights activist, Lyudmyla Denisova alleged that Russia had forcibly deported 210,000 children, since 24 February. She however did not provide any supporting evidence for this number.
The Moscow View:
Claims by Russia
Brittney Griner, a famous basketball player from the USA will face another month of pre-trial detention in Russia. Griner was arrested at the Moscow airport when the 31-year-old Olympics and WNBA star was found with cannabis vape oil in her luggage. While the Biden administration has said that she has been wrongfully detained, her lawyer has said that she was being treated well, and her health was okay.
On 13 May, Joseph Borell, the foreign affairs chief of the European Union said that the bloc would provide an additional EUR 500 million, in military support to Ukraine. With this set of aid, the EU’s total support of Ukraine will come to EUR 2.08 billion. Borrell also spoke about how he was confident that they will be able to reach a consensus about the embargo on Russian oil soon.
Russia’s foreign ministry reported that they have expelled 10 Romanian diplomats. They also mentioned that this was in response to a similar move undertaken by Bucharest. One member from Bulgaria’s embassy has been expelled as well.
The West View:
Responses from the US and Europe
On 13 May, Britain's defence secretary Ben Wallace and the U.S. defence secretary issued a joint statement about military aid for Ukraine. In a meeting that took place on 11 May, they discussed the next steps to help Ukraine, and issues about security, NATO, and the AUKUS, which is a defence pact between Australia, the United States, and Britain.
UK’s defence ministry, in their regular Twitter bulletin, said that Ukraine's forces have been successful in preventing Russia from crossing the Siverskyi Donets river. Reportedly, Russia's losses include "significant armored maneuver elements" and deployed pontoon bridging equipment of one battalion tactical group.
German cabinet’s security council has been deliberating on whether to provide Ukraine with IRIS-T SLM medium-range surface-to-air defence systems. These weapons are reportedly made by Diehl Defense, which is a privately held German weapons maker.
The Global Fallouts:
Implications of the Ukraine war
Gillian Triggs, the assistant high commissioner for protection at the UNHCR said that refugee women from Ukraine who have fled to Poland must be provided access to reproductive rights. Poland has one of the most restrictive abortion laws in Europe, and concerns have been raised about the issues faced by refugees who have been victims of rape in Ukraine. Triggs said: "(Victims of sexual violence) need counselling and they need assistance. In some cases, they will need abortions. We will raise this ... with the government.”
References
Joshua Askew, “Russian solider, 21, on trial for murdering civilian in Ukraine war,” Euronews, 13 May 2022
“Russia-Ukraine war: What happened today (May 13),” National Public Radio, 13 May 2022
“Ukraine accuses Russia of forcibly deporting over 210,000 children,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
Natalia Zinets, “Ukraine's president reiterates readiness to talk to Putin,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“Russia expels 10 Romanian diplomats in tit-for-tat move,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“Ukraine asks G7 to seize Russian assets to rebuild country,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“Russian blockade hits exports of Ukrainian agricultural products,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“UK, U.S. defence ministers discuss support for Ukraine,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“Ukrainian forces prevented attempted Russian river crossing in the Donbas, Britain says,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“Germany considering whether to supply IRIS-T air defence system to Ukraine,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
“Access to abortions needed for Ukrainian refugees in Poland, UNHCR says,” Reuters, 13 May 2022
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
The UK
Boris Johnson to visit Northern Islands amidst rising tensions
On 13 may it was reported that Prime minister Boris Johnson is slated to visit Northern Ireland on 16 May. This coincides with the rising tensions caused by the Democratic Unionist Party's move to block the election of a Speaker to the new assembly. Speculations about the government’s plan to strip away parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol are rising. The protocol was a part of the UK-EU Brexit deal, which ensures the continuation of free trade across the Irish land border, also aligns Northern Ireland with the EU single market for goods and has been opposed by unionist politicians. (“NI Election 2022: Prime minister to visit NI as DUP blocks assembly,” BBC, 13 May 2022)
REGIONAL
G7 leaders meet to unite Ukraine and Moldova
On 13 May, the foreign ministers of the G7 countries started a meeting in the German resort of Weissenhaus. The objective of the meeting is to discuss the war in Ukraine, the spillover of its impacts on Moldova and the increasing crisis of food security. Germany, which is holding the G7 presidency in 2022, is hosting the top diplomats from Canada, France, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba and Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu are the guests for this session. The foreign minister of Indonesia is also slated to join virtually and they will be discussing China’s position vis-a-vis the war and their ties with Russia. (“G7: Germany seeks 'powerful sign of unity' for Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 13 May 2022)
CLIMATE
Climate change poses the most significant challenge to migratory birds
Climate change is wreaking havoc on various ecosystems, but migratory birds are among the species worst hit by it. About half of the world’s total 10,000 species of birds are migratory in nature, and about 4000 of them travel back and forth between their breeding grounds and wintering grounds. Sometimes these journeys stretch over huge extend of land, often up to 20,000 kilometers, and climate change is making these migrations harder and longer for the birds. (“The perilous life of migratory birds,” Deutsche Welle, 13 May 2022)
SPORTS
International Ice Hockey Federation bans Russia from the World Championship
Many sports associations have banned Russian players from competing in international competitions, and that is the same for the International Ice Hockey Federation as well. Russia which historically has a strong Ice Hockey team will miss this year’s IIHF World Championship. At the Winter Olympics, the Russian team had played under the banner of the "Russian Olympic Committee" (ROC). This was because they were banned from using the Russian flag or uniforms after evidence of state-sponsored doping became public. However, now, they have been banned from participating altogether. (“2022 IIHF World Championship: 'Like a World Cup without Germany or Brazil,” Deutsche Welle, 13 May 2022)